![]() London, meanwhile, is forecast to have 0.61 extreme rainfall events per year in the 2070s, up from 0.21 in the 1980s. North Scotland is set to go from 0.54 to 5.30, the west from 0.67 to 4.42, and east from 0.53 to 3.97. Northern Ireland will not escape either, with projections rising to 3.21 from 0.53 40 years ago. ![]() Yorkshire and Humber is forecast to have 2.77 such events a year in the 2070s, compared to 0.77 in the 1980s West Midlands 2.27 and East Midlands 2.64. The corresponding figures for the East of England are 1.06 to 3.35 South West 1.19 to 5.32 South East 1.16 to 3.57 North East 0.45 to 2.05 and North West 0.78 to 3.95. ![]() ![]() In Wales alone the number of extreme rainfall events over 20 mm/h is projected to go from 1.54 in the 1980s to 5.80 in the 2070s. They found that there were on average 11.9 such events annually 40 years ago, while in half a century's time that is forecast to rocket to 49.2. Professor Elizabeth Kendon, of the Met Office and Bristol University, worked with colleagues to create a model that would study local hourly future rainfall extremes exceeding 20 mm/h across the UK, both back in the 1980s and also projections for the 2070s. In England alone, an estimated three million properties are at risk from surface water flooding.įor this reason, the team added, they hope their research will help support policy decisions in infrastructure design, land management and flood protection investment.
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